Is there a housing bubble in Switzerland?

Is there a housing bubble in Switzerland?

Michael and Arthur

1. Financial crisis 2008 and it’s impact on Switzerland

  • Financial crisis was caused by a bubble on the us housing market, it made banks tremble
  • The impact was strong and worldwide
  • Many studies in the US, our reference for this project is the «Bay Area Blues: The Effect of the Housing Crisis». They say expensive houses are less affected than cheap houses
  • Ongoing surge of average house prices in Switzerland in general, but lack of local data.

2. What are the criteria for a bubble?

  • You see strong growth in loan volume and the real estate prices
  • If both grow over years faster than GDP, you can talk about a bubble
  1. If we find data that confirm the two criteria, it is worth to investigate further, if not, we have to give up.

3. What did we do?

  • We did look at the Public Data you find on the Webside of Swiss National Bank and Office for Statistics for the time from 2004 to 2014
  • Inflation: 5.5 %
  • GDP: 32.4 %
  • House prices 54.5 %
  • Housing credits: 86.6 % regional range from 36.8 % to 60.4 %, 8 regions published
  • Conclusion: There must be regions where you can talk about a bubble, let’s go on and find local data. Officially you don’t get statistic on local sales. Finally we found a private company specialized in the housing business that gave as some data.

4. The Visualization

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